Start of "Santa Claus rally" dampened by "cliff' worries

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks edged lower on Monday as caution over the potential for volatility driven by worries about the U.S. "fiscal cliff" dampened enthusiasm at the start of a seasonally strong period for equities.

Investors are betting Congress will reach a deal to avert most of the austerity measures due to come into force at the start of next year. That has led to the best year for stocks since the post-financial crisis rebound. But those gains may be quickly reversed if a deal is not reached soon.

The S&P 500 index posted its biggest drop in more than a month on Friday as a Republican plan to avoid the cliff - $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that could tip the U.S. economy into recession - failed to gain traction on Thursday night.

Sharp moves like that highlight how headlines from Washington can whipsaw markets, especially during the thinly traded period over the Christmas holiday.

Still, with the S&P 500 up 0.7 percent in December and on course for its strongest month since September, some analysts are predicting that stocks will find their footing during a market seasonality known as the "Santa Claus rally."

"Right now we've seen some very constructive action in the market so I think that bodes well for this being a positive seasonal 'Santa' period over the coming seven days," said Ari Wald, a technical analyst at The PrinceRidge Group.

He noted an all-time high in the NYSE advance-decline line, which compares advancing and declining stocks, as indication of strong participation in the rally off November lows.

"Pull-backs are buying opportunities," said Wald. "There has been really great participation on this move, a lot of small- and mid-cap stocks behaving well, pushing out to the upside; we're seeing some good leadership from offensive sectors of the market as well."

A high ratio of advancing stocks to declining issues shows there is broad participation across the equity market.

The Santa seasonality covers the last five trading days of the year and the first two of the new year. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of 1.8 percent during this period and risen 79 percent of the time, according to data from PrinceRidge.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> dropped 51.76 points, or 0.39 percent, to 13,139.08. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> fell 3.49 points, or 0.24 percent, to 1,426.66. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> lost 8.41 points, or 0.28 percent, to 3,012.60.

The S&P 500 is up more than 13 percent for the year, having recovered nearly all the losses suffered in the wake of the U.S. election. The yearly gain would be the best since 2009.

Some U.S. lawmakers expressed concern on Sunday the country would go over the cliff, as some Republicans charged that was President Barack Obama's goal. Talks are stalled with Obama and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner out of Washington for the holidays.

"It does seem like we are continuing through the same drift of the same thing we've had the past couple of weeks - 'cliff' talk," said Nick Scheumann, wealth partner at Hefty Wealth Partners in Auburn, Indiana.

"You can't trade on what you don't know and we truly don't know what they are going to do," he said.

Congress is expected to return to Washington next Thursday as President Barack Obama returns from a trip to Hawaii. As the deadline draws closer, a 'stop-gap' deal appears to be the most likely outcome of any talks.

Trading volume was muted, with U.S. equity markets closing at 1 p.m. (1800 GMT) ahead of the Christmas Day holiday on Tuesday.

In addition, a number of European markets operated on a shortened session, with other markets closed.

U.S. retailers may not see a sales surge from this weekend as ho-hum discounts and fears about imminent tax hikes and cuts in government spending give Americans fewer reasons to open their wallets in the last few days before Christmas.

Aegerion Pharmaceuticals Inc said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved Juxtapid capsules in patients with homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia, but will conduct a post-approval study to test long-term safety and efficacy. Shares fell 1.8 percent to $25.25.

Herbalife Ltd dipped 4.4 percent to $26.06 after the company said it expects to exceed its previously announced repurchase authorization guidance and has retained Moelis & Company as its strategic adviser. The declines put the stock on track for a ninth straight decline.

Yum Brands Inc advanced 1.8 percent to $65.01 after Shanghai's food safety authority said the level of antibiotics and steroids in the company's KFC chicken was within official limits.

(Reporting By Edward Krudy; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Dan Grebler)

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Egyptians back new constitution in referendum

CAIRO (Reuters) - An Islamist-backed Egyptian constitution won approval in a referendum, rival camps said on Sunday, after a vote the opposition said would sow deep social divisions in the Arab world's most populous nation.

The Islamist Muslim Brotherhood, which propelled President Mohamed Mursi to power in a June election, said an unofficial tally showed 64 percent of voters backed the charter after two rounds of voting that ended with a final ballot on Saturday.

An opposition official also told Reuters their unofficial count showed the result was a "yes" vote, while party spokesmen said there had been a series of abuses during the voting.

The main opposition coalition, the National Salvation Front, responded to the defeat by saying it was moving towards forming a single political party to challenge the Islamists who have dominated the ballot box since strongman Hosni Mubarak was overthrown two years ago.

Members of the opposition, taking heart from a low turnout of about 30 percent of voters, pledged to keep up pressure on Mursi through peaceful protests and other democratic means.

"The referendum is not the end of the road," said Khaled Dawoud, a spokesman for the National Salvation Front. "It is only the beginning of a long struggle for Egypt's future."

The referendum committee may not declare official results for the two rounds until Monday, after hearing appeals. If the outcome is confirmed, a parliamentary election will follow in about two months.

Mursi's Islamist backers say the constitution is vital for the transition to democracy, nearly two years after Mubarak was ousted in a popular uprising. It will provide the stability needed to help a fragile economy, they say.

The constitution was "a historic opportunity to unite all national powers on the basis of mutual respect and honest dialogue for the sake of stabilizing the nation," the Brotherhood said in a statement.

RECIPE FOR UNREST

The opposition accuses Mursi of pushing through a text that favors Islamists and ignores the rights of Christians, who make up about 10 percent of the population, as well as women. They say it is a recipe for further unrest.

The opposition said voting in both rounds was marred by abuses. However, an official said the overall vote favored the charter.

"The majority is not big and the minority is not small," liberal politician Amr Hamzawy said, adding that the National Salvation Front would use "all peaceful, democratic means" such as protests to challenge the constitution.

The vote was split over two days as many judges had refused to supervise the ballot, making a single day of voting impossible.

During the build-up to the vote there were deadly protests, sparked by Mursi's decision to award himself extra powers in a November 22 decree and then to fast-track the constitutional vote.

The new basic law sets a limit of two four-year presidential terms. It says the principles of sharia, Islamic law, remain the main source of legislation but adds an article to explain this. It also says Islamic authorities will be consulted on sharia - a source of concern to Christians and others.

ABUSES

Rights groups reported what they said were illegalities in voting procedures. They said some polling stations opened late, that Islamists illegally campaigned at some polling places, and complained of irregularities in voter registration.

But the committee overseeing the two-stage vote said its investigations showed no major irregularities in voting on December 15, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million voters. About 25 million were eligible to vote in the second round.

The Brotherhood said turnout was about a third of voters.

The opposition says the constitution will stir up more trouble on the streets since it has not received sufficiently broad backing for a document that should be agreed by consensus, and raised questions about the fairness of the vote.

In the first round, the district covering most of Cairo voted "no," which opponents said showed the depth of division.

"I see more unrest," said Ahmed Said, head of the liberal Free Egyptians Party and a member of the opposition Front.

He cited "serious violations" on the first day of voting, and said anger against Mursi was growing. "People are not going to accept the way they are dealing with the situation."

At least eight people were killed in protests outside the presidential palace in Cairo this month. Islamists and rivals clashed in Alexandria, the second-biggest city, on the eves of both voting days.

(Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; editing by Philippa Fletcher)

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Top Comments: Mashable Readers React to Instagram’s Terms of Service

Monday, Dec. 17: Instagram Updates TOS

Readers had varying reactions to Instagram‘s updates. Some felt that they were fair: If you don’t like the terms of service, argued some users, you have the option not to use the service. Others were far more outraged.

Click here to view this gallery.

[More from Mashable: Why xkcd Is Wrong About Instagram]

This week, the top comments on Mashable brought into focus both the state of the world around us and the constantly changing nature of our virtual lives. Our readers launched into debate when Instagram appeared to be making drastic changes to its privacy policy. Based on the wording of Instagram’s new Terms of Service, photographers worried that they may no longer own the rights to their own work, and that their photos could be used in advertising. As Mashable‘s Chris Taylor put it, the TOS as they stood early this week basically “signed your life away.”

Over the course of the week, we saw new privacy settings for Instagram users revealed, officially commented upon (while remaining unchanged) and then finally rescinded and apologized for.

[More from Mashable: Instagram Updates Its Terms of Service Based on User Feedback]

The Instagram controversy proved that users are, in fact, paying attention to the often glossed-over Terms of Service established by their favorite apps, and that a company’s response to public outcry has the potential to make or break their service.

Mashable‘s senior tech analyst, Christina Warren, compared Instagram’s actions to Netflix’s in the summer of 2011. Outraged users proved they weren’t bluffing about abandoning Instagram: Celebrities and power users threatened to quit the network, and downloads of rival apps such as Flickr and Aviary soared in the days surrounding the controversy. What was your take on this week’s events, involving photo-sharing and users’ right to ownership?

Even more commented upon, though less debated, were two Mashable stories that examined social media backlash in the wake of a tragedy. In the days following the horrific shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary in Newtown, Connecticut, we found ourselves contemplating, both online and off, the horrific nature of the event. Unsurprisingly, the two most-commented-upon stories this week both centered on Sandy Hook’s impact on the social web. Our commenters sounded off on the offensive tweets sent during Obama’s Newtown speech, as well as on the viral post, “I Am Adam Lanza’s Mother.”

Other stories our commenters flocked to this week included a viral video of a golden eagle snatching a baby (later proved to be a hoax), the hacking of the Westboro Baptist Church by hacktivist group Anonymous and the appalling revelation that Facebook’s interns make more money than all of us. We also prepared for the end of the world as brought forth by the Mayan Apocalypse — which never did happen.

What were your favorite moments on Mashable this week? You can be part of the discussion by signing up with one of your social networks, and joining the conversation on our site. Next week, your voice could be featured in the Top Comments.

Happy holidays to our community!

Image courtesy of flickr, Marc Wathieu

This story originally published on Mashable here.

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Bethenny Frankel & Jason Hoppy Split Up

Breaking News

By Andrea Billups and Liz McNeil

12/23/2012 at 02:10 PM EST

Jason Hoppy and Bethenny Frankel in March 2012

Bauer-Griffin

Bethenny Frankel and husband Jason Hoppy have called it quits after almost three years of marriage.

"It brings me great sadness to say that Jason and I are separating. This was an extremely difficult decision that as a woman and a mother, I have to accept as the best choice for our family," Frankel said in a statement Sunday.

"We have love and respect for one another and will continue to amicably co-parent our daughter who is and will always remain our first priority," the statement continues. "This is an immensely painful and heartbreaking time for us."

News of their split comes after months of speculation that their relationship was on the rocks. Earlier this summer, the reality TV star, author and talk-show host admitted that she was fighting for her marriage, which was filmed for and subsequently documented on her Bravo reality show Bethenny Ever After.

Frankel and Hoppy, who married March 2010 when Frankel was seven months pregnant, are parents of daughter Bryn Hoppy, 2½. The family was spotted out together in New York last week, even as rumors swirled that a split was imminent.

Frankel, 42, is the creator of the Skinnygirl line of cocktail, food and nutrition products and rose to early fame as a cast member on The Real Housewives of New York. She later starred in Bethenny Getting Married? and as host of her own talk show, Bethenny. As an author, she has published four books.

Frankel met Hoppy at a nightclub in November 2008, and they two became engaged 11 months later. At the time, she told PEOPLE he gave her life stability.

"He's my anchor," she said back then. "I fell in love with a regular guy with a regular salary. He taught me that being taken care of was emotional and not financial."

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.

A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.

Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.

Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.

"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.

"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.

If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.

For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.

Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.

IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY

Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.

If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.

"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.

"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."

Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.

Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.

"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.

"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."

Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.

The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.

Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.

U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Vice president quits as Egypt votes on constitution

CAIRO (Reuters) - Egypt's vice-president resigned on Saturday as Egyptians voted in a referendum that is expected to approve a new constitution that lays the foundations for the country's transition to democracy but will strip him of his role.

Authorities extended voting by four hours in the second and decisive round of the plebiscite on an Islamist-drafted constitution that the opposition has criticized as divisive and likely to cause more unrest.

Just hours before polls closed, Vice President Mahmoud Mekky announced his resignation, saying he wanted to quit last month but stayed on to help President Mohamed Mursi tackle a crisis that blew up when the Islamist leader assumed wide powers.

Mekky, a prominent judge who said he was uncomfortable in politics, disclosed earlier he had not been informed of Mursi's power grab. However, the timing of Mekky's move appeared linked to the fact there is no vice-presidential post under the draft constitution.

In a resignation letter, Mekky said that although he had held on in the post he had "realized for some time that the nature of political work did not suit my professional background as a judge".

Islamist supporters of Mursi say the charter is vital to move towards democracy, nearly two years after an Arab Spring revolt overthrew authoritarian ruler Hosni Mubarak. It will help restore stability needed to fix a struggling economy, they say.

But the opposition says the document is divisive and has accused Mursi of pushing through a text that favors his Islamist allies while ignoring the rights of Christians, who make up about 10 percent of the population, as well as women.

"I'm voting 'no' because Egypt can't be ruled by one faction," said Karim Nahas, 35, a stockbroker, heading to a polling station in Giza, a province included in this round of voting which covers parts of greater Cairo.

At another polling station, some voters said they were more interested in ending Egypt's long period of political instability than in the Islamist aspects of the charter.

"We have to extend our hands to Mursi to help fix the country," said Hisham Kamal, an accountant.

Queues formed at some polling stations around the country and voting was extended by four hours to 11 p.m. (2100 GMT).

Unofficial tallies are likely to emerge within hours of the close, but the referendum committee may not declare an official result for the two rounds until Monday, after hearing appeals.

CHEATING ALLEGED

As polling opened on Saturday, a coalition of Egyptian rights groups reported a number of alleged irregularities.

They said some polling stations had opened late, that Islamists urging a "yes" vote had illegally campaigned at some stations, and complained of irregularities in voter registration irregularities, including the listing of one dead person.

Last week's first round of voting gave a 57 percent vote in favour of the constitution, according to unofficial figures.

Analysts expect another "yes" on Saturday because the vote covers rural and other areas seen as having more Islamist sympathizers. Islamists may also be able to count on many Egyptians who are simply exhausted by two years of upheaval.

Among the provisions of the new basic law are a limit of two four-year presidential terms. It says the principles of sharia law remain the main source of legislation but adds an article to explain this further. It also says Islamic authorities will be consulted on sharia - a source of concern to Christians and other non-Muslims.

If the constitution is passed, a parliamentary election will be held in about two months. If not, an assembly will have to be set up to draft a new one.

After the first round of voting, the opposition said alleged abuses meant the first stage of the referendum should be re-run.

But the committee overseeing the two-stage vote said its investigations showed no major irregularities in voting on December 15, which covered about half of Egypt's 51 million voters.

MORE UNREST

Even if the charter is approved, the opposition say it is a recipe for trouble since it has not received sufficiently broad backing from the population. They say the result may go in Mursi's favour but it will not be a fair vote.

"I see more unrest," said Ahmed Said, head of the liberal Free Egyptians Party and a member of the National Salvation Front, an opposition coalition formed after Mursi expanded his powers on November 22 and then pushed the constitution to a vote.

Protesters accused the president of acting like a pharaoh, and he was forced to issue a second decree two weeks ago that amended a provision putting his decisions above legal challenge.

Said cited "serious violations" on the first day of voting, and said anger against Mursi and his Islamist allies was growing. "People are not going to accept the way they are dealing with the situation."

At least eight people were killed in protests outside the presidential palace in Cairo this month. Islamists and rivals clashed on Friday in the second biggest city of Alexandria, hurling stones at each other. Two buses were torched.

The head of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group that represents Mursi's power base, said the vote was an opportunity for Egypt to move on.

"After the constitution is settled by the people, the wheels in all areas will turn, even if there are differences here and there," the Brotherhood's supreme guide, Mohamed Badie, said as he went to vote in Beni Suef, south of Cairo.

"After choosing a constitution, all Egyptians will be moving in the same direction," he said.

The vote was staggered after many judges refused to supervise the ballot, meaning there were not enough to hold the referendum on a single day nationwide.

The first round was won by a slim enough margin to buttress opposition arguments that the text was divisive. Opponents who include liberals, leftists, Christians and more moderate-minded Muslims accuse Islamists of using religion to sway voters.

Islamists, who have won successive ballots since Mubarak's overthrow, albeit by narrowing margins, dismiss charges that they are exploiting religion and say the document reflects the will of a majority in the country where most people are Muslim.

(Additional reporting by Tamim Elyan; Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Jason Webb)

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PEOPLE Remembers the American Soldiers Killed in Afghanistan

With the exit from Iraq and the draw-down of troops in Afghanistan, the numbers of Americans killed continues to drop.

Still, loved ones are mourning 311 lost, and as of Dec. 17, the wars' toll since 2001 now stands at 6,656.

Edward Joseph Acosta, 21
Trevor Brandon Adkins, 21
Ahmed Kousay al-Taie, 46 Erica Paige Alecksen, 21
Tobias Christoph Alexander, 30
Joseph James Altmann, 27
Mabry James Anders, 21
Joshua Ryan Ashley, 23
Bradley Wayne Atwell, 27

Daniel Benjamin Bartle, 27
Jon-Luke Bateman, 22
Jonathan Batista, 22
Rayvon Battle Jr., 25
Taylor John Baune, 21
Jordan Logan Bear, 25
Clayton Ross Beauchamp, 21
Genaro Bedoy, 20
Bryan Richard Bell, 23
Russell Ryan Bell, 37
Jose Oscar Belmontes, 28
Kenneth Wade Bennett, 26
Keith David Benson, 27
Richard Liam Berry, 27
Robert John Billings, 30
Christopher James Birdwell, 25
Jeremie Shane Border, 28
Christopher David Bordoni, 21
Joshua Alan Born, 25
Michael Cean Braden, 31
Mikayla Anne Bragg, 21
John R. Brainard III, 26
Sean Edward Brazas, 26
Andrew Trevor Britton-Mihalo, 25
Michael John Brodsky, 33
Christopher L. Brown, 26
Daniel Joseph Brown, 27
Milton W. Brown, 28
Gregory Thomas Buckley, 21
Antonio Carlos Burnside, 31
Thomas Jefferson Butler IV, 25
Brandon Lucas Buttry, 19

Gerardo Campos, 23
Shane William Cantu, 20
Daniel Lewis Carlson, 21
Sean Patrick Carson, 32
Roberto Cazarez, 24
Julian Clement Chase, 22
Nicolas D. Checque, 28
Gregory Lamont Childs, 38
Bruce Kevin Clark, 43
Junot M. L. Cochilus, 34
Kenneth Eldren Cochran, 20
Keaton Grant Coffey, 22
Julian Lee Colvin, 21
Timothy John Conrad Jr., 22
Gregory Todd Copes, 36
Cesar Cortez, 24
Niall William Cotisears, 23

Joseph D’Augustine, 29
Johnathon Frank Davis, 20
Nathan Tyler Davis, 20
Coater Bernard Debose, 55
Michael Robert Demarsico II, 20
Anthony Joseph Denier, 26
Leroy Deronde III, 22
Nicholas Michael Dickhut, 23
Scott Edward Dickinson, 29
Alex Frank Domion, 21
Curtis Joseph Duarte, 22
Michael Stephen Duskin, 42
James Evan Dutton, 25
Edward Joe Dycus, 22

Kevin Richard Ebbert, 32
Jason Kyle Edens, 22
Brandon Forrest Eggleston, 29
Vincent James Ellis, 22
Darrel Lynn Enos, 36
Richard Allen Essex, 23
Bobby Lee Estle, 38
Kyler Lavon Estrada, 21

Joseph Henry Fankhauser, 30
Aaron Matthew Faust, 22
Mathew Gregory Fazzari, 25
Patrick Delaney Feeks, 28
Arronn David Fields, 27
Krystal Marie Fitts, 26
Joseph Fitzmorris, 31
Thomas Kent Fogarty, 30
Nicholas Charles Fredsti, 30

Vilmar Galarza Hernandez, 21
Luis Antonio Oliver Galbreath, 41
Jonathan William Gifford, 34
Theodore Matthew Glende, 23
Jonathan Alan Gollnitz, 28
Moises Jesus Gonzalez, 29
Brandon Dwayne Goodine, 20
Brittany Bria Gordon, 24
Brett Edward Gornewicz, 27
Walter David Gray, 38
Kevin James Griffin, 45
Samuel Mark Griffith, 36
Jesse James Grindey, 30
Dustin Dean Gross, 19
Raul Madrigal Guerra, 37
Michael J. Guillory, 28

Ryan Preston Hall, 30
Carl Erik Hammar, 24
Shawn Thomas Hannon, 44
John Eric Hansen, 41
Justin Michael Hansen, 26
Jeremy Franklin Hardison, 23
Zachary Hayden Hargrove, 32
Aaron Arthur Henderson, 33
Alex Hernandez III, 21
Pernell Johnnie Herrera, 33
Channing Bo Hicks, 24
Darrion Terrell Hicks, 21
Tanner Stone Higgins, 23
Terence John Hildner, 49
Hunter Dalton Hogan, 21
Eric Scott Holman, 39
Patricia Lee Horne, 20
Brian Daniel Hornsby, 37
Justin Louis Horsley, 21
John Patrick Huling, 25

Francis Dee Imlay Jr., 31
Aaron Dale Istre, 37

Kedith Lamont Jacobs Jr., 21
Sean Robert Jacobs, 23
Jamie Darrell Jarboe, 27
Ryan Paul Jayne, 22
Ryan Jeschke, 31
David Andrew Johnson, 24
Donna Rae Johnson, 29
Nicholas Scott Johnson, 27
Payton Alexander Jones, 19
James Austin Justice, 21

Ramon Taisakan Kaipat, 22
Matthew Geoffrey Kantor, 22
Andrew James Keller, 22
Thomas Elliott Kennedy, 35
Kurt William Kern, 24
Richard James Kessler Jr., 47
Michael Joseph Knapp, 28
Jabraun Steven Knox, 23
Noah Mark Korte, 29
Suresh Niranjan Aba Krause, 29

Jarrod Allen Lallier, 20
Todd William Lambka, 25
Matthew John Leach, 29
Dick Alson Lee Jr., 31
Brian Jeffery Leonhardt, 21
Joseph Michael Lilly, 25
Darren M. Linde, 41
Daniel Lee Linnabary II, 23
Kevin E. Lipari, 39
Roberto Loeza Jr., 28
John Darin Loftis, 44
Joseph Daniel Logan, 22
Jesus Jonathan Lopez, 22
Conner Thomas Lowry, 24
Bryant Jordan Luxmore, 25

Bruce Andrew MacFarlane, 46
Thomas Raymond MacPherson, 26
Matthew Patrick Manoukian, 29
Robert Joseph Marchanti II, 48
Justin Cameron Marquez, 25
Chase Stone Marta, 24
Ethan Jacob Martin, 22
Alex Martinez, 21
Robert Anthony Massarelli, 32
Erik Nathaniel May, 26
Kyle Brenton McClain, 25
Philip Daine McGeath, 25
Nathan Ronald McHone, 29
Allen Robert McKenna Jr., 28
Barett Wambli McNabb, 33
Richard Lewis McNulty III, 22
John David Meador II, 36
Dale Wayne Means, 23
Kashif Mohammed Memon, 31
Michael Joseph Metcalf, 22
Daniel Thomas Metcalfe, 29
Jonathan Matthew Metzger, 32
Cale Clyde Miller, 23
Eugene Clifton Mills III, 21
Christopher Michael Monahan Jr., 25
Jose Luis Montenegro Jr., 31
Osbrany Montes De Oca, 20
Cody Otho Moosman, 24
Travis Alan Morgado, 25
Christopher E. Mosko, 28
Sky Russell Mote, 27
Christopher Lee Muniz, 24

Dustin Paul Napier, 20
Juan Pantoja Navarro, 23
Benjamin Harold Neal, 21
James Dominic Nehl, 37
Joshua Nathaniel Nelson, 22
Sapuro Brightley Nena, 25
David Paul Nowaczyk, 32
Israel Paul Nuanes, 38

Nicholas Henry Olivas, 20
Tyler J. Orgaard, 20
Kyle Bruce Osborn, 26
Jesse Aaron Ozbat, 28

Scott Patrick Pace, 39
Joshua Cole Pairsh, 29
Michael Jeremy Palacio, 23
Alejandro Jose Pardo, 21
Christopher Alexander Patterson, 20
Brandon Robert Pepper, 31
Sergio Eduardo Perez, 21
Trevor Adam Pinnick, 20
Benjamin Carlos Pleitez, 25
William Compton Poling Jr., 42
Paris Shawn Pough, 40
Alexander George Povilaitis Jr., 47
Stephen Chase Prasnicki, 24
John Castle Pratt, 51
Daniel Joseph Price, 27
Scott Eugene Pruitt, 38
Michael Wayne Pyron, 30

Christopher Keith Raible, 40
Thalia Suzanne Ramirez, 28
Ryan Davis Rawl, 30
Clovis Tim Ray, 34
Jerry Don Reed II, 30
Chad Robert Regelin, 24
Nicholas J. Reid, 26
Kevin James Reinhard, 25
Jose Joel Reyes, 24
Jeffrey Leon Rice, 24
Joseph Alvin Richardson, 23
Travis William Riddick, 40
Jeffrey James Rieck, 46
Michael Eugene Ristau, 25
Richard Anthony Rivera Jr., 20
Daquane Demetris Rivers, 21
Dion Rashun Roberts, 25
Leonard Robinson, 29
Daniel Anthony Rodriguez, 28
Jose Rodriguez, 22
Kyle Robert Rookey, 23
Adam Corey Ross, 19
Nicholas Jan Rozanski, 36
Clinton Keith Ruiz, 22
David E. Rylander, 23

Brenden Neal Salazar, 20
Christian Riley Sannicolas, 20
Ryan James Savard, 29
Philip Channing Sipe Schiller, 21
Joseph Lee Schiro, 27
Jonathan Philip Schmidt, 28
Julian Seiji Scholten, 26
Jacob Michael Schwallie, 22
Matthew Scott Schwartz, 34
Matthew Ryan Seidler, 24
Ricardo Seija, 31
Anthony Ramon Servin, 22
Dean Russell Shaffer, 23
Christopher Greg Singer, 23
Matthew Steven Sitton, 26
James Lyn Skalberg Jr., 25
Tyler James Smith, 24
Orion Nelson Sparks, 29
William Chapman Stacey, 23
Cameron James Stambaugh, 20
Trevor Jovanne Stanley, 22
Camella Marchett Steedley, 31
Riley Gene Stephens, 39
Steven Prince Stevens II, 23
Matthew Henrick Stiltz, 26
Jesse Wade Stites, 23
Michael Joseph Strachota, 28
Sean Patrick Sullivan, 40
Billy Albert Sutton, 42
Steven Gene Sutton, 24
Jason Michael Swindle, 24

Abraham Tarwoe, 25
Robert Joseph Tauteris Jr., 44
Tofiga Joshua Tautolo, 23
David Wayne Taylor, 20
Nicholas Andrew Taylor, 20
Alec Robert Terwiske, 21
Matthew Bradford Thomas, 30
Alejo Rene Thompson, 30
Joel Del Mundo Tiu, 48
Louis Ramon Torres, 23
Jon Ross Townsend, 19
Gregory Ray Trent, 38
Nelson D. Trent, 37
Neil Isaac Turner, 21

Jalfred David Vaquerano, 20
Manuel Joseph Vasquez, 22
Jorge Luis Velasquez, 35
Dain Taylor Venne, 29
Don Cayetano Viray, 25
Paul Clarke Voelke, 36

Brian Lloyd Walker, 25
Jonathan Patrick Walsh, 28
Eric Dean Warren, 23
David John Warsen, 27
Samuel Thomas Watts, 20
Dennis Paul Weichel Jr., 29
Jeffrey Lee White Jr., 21
Nicholas Schade Whitlock, 29
Justin Michael Whitmire, 20
Ronald Herbert Wildrick Jr., 30
Justin James Wilkens, 26
Clarence Williams III, 23
David Vincent Williams, 24
Eric Edward Williams, 27
Wesley R. Williams, 25
Ryan James Wilson, 26
Shane Gregory Wilson, 20
Wade Daniel Wilson, 22
William Robert Wilson III, 27
Jessica Marie Wing, 42
Benjamin Brian Wise, 34
Joshua Eli Witsman, 23
Chris John Workman, 33
Sterling William Wyatt, 21

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Predicting who's at risk for violence isn't easy

CHICAGO (AP) — It happened after Columbine, Virginia Tech, Aurora, Colo., and now Sandy Hook: People figure there surely were signs of impending violence. But experts say predicting who will be the next mass shooter is virtually impossible — partly because as commonplace as these calamities seem, they are relatively rare crimes.

Still, a combination of risk factors in troubled kids or adults including drug use and easy access to guns can increase the likelihood of violence, experts say.

But warning signs "only become crystal clear in the aftermath, said James Alan Fox, a Northeastern University criminology professor who has studied and written about mass killings.

"They're yellow flags. They only become red flags once the blood is spilled," he said.

Whether 20-year-old Adam Lanza, who used his mother's guns to kill her and then 20 children and six adults at their Connecticut school, made any hints about his plans isn't publicly known.

Fox said that sometimes, in the days, weeks or months preceding their crimes, mass murderers voice threats, or hints, either verbally or in writing, things like "'don't come to school tomorrow,'" or "'they're going to be sorry for mistreating me.'" Some prepare by target practicing, and plan their clothing "as well as their arsenal." (Police said Lanza went to shooting ranges with his mother in the past but not in the last six months.)

Although words might indicate a grudge, they don't necessarily mean violence will follow. And, of course, most who threaten never act, Fox said.

Even so, experts say threats of violence from troubled teens and young adults should be taken seriously and parents should attempt to get them a mental health evaluation and treatment if needed.

"In general, the police are unlikely to be able to do anything unless and until a crime has been committed," said Dr. Paul Appelbaum, a Columbia University professor of psychiatry, medicine and law. "Calling the police to confront a troubled teen has often led to tragedy."

The American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry says violent behavior should not be dismissed as "just a phase they're going through."

In a guidelines for families, the academy lists several risk factors for violence, including:

—Previous violent or aggressive behavior

—Being a victim of physical or sexual abuse

—Guns in the home

—Use of drugs or alcohol

—Brain damage from a head injury

Those with several of these risk factors should be evaluated by a mental health expert if they also show certain behaviors, including intense anger, frequent temper outbursts, extreme irritability or impulsiveness, the academy says. They may be more likely than others to become violent, although that doesn't mean they're at risk for the kind of violence that happened in Newtown, Conn.

Lanza, the Connecticut shooter, was socially withdrawn and awkward, and has been said to have had Asperger's disorder, a mild form of autism that has no clear connection with violence.

Autism experts and advocacy groups have complained that Asperger's is being unfairly blamed for the shootings, and say people with the disorder are much more likely to be victims of bullying and violence by others.

According to a research review published this year in Annals of General Psychiatry, most people with Asperger's who commit violent crimes have serious, often undiagnosed mental problems. That includes bipolar disorder, depression and personality disorders. It's not publicly known if Lanza had any of these, which in severe cases can include delusions and other psychotic symptoms.

Young adulthood is when psychotic illnesses typically emerge, and Appelbaum said there are several signs that a troubled teen or young adult might be heading in that direction: isolating themselves from friends and peers, spending long periods alone in their rooms, plummeting grades if they're still in school and expressing disturbing thoughts or fears that others are trying to hurt them.

Appelbaum said the most agonizing calls he gets are from parents whose children are descending into severe mental illness but who deny they are sick and refuse to go for treatment.

And in the case of adults, forcing them into treatment is difficult and dependent on laws that vary by state.

All states have laws that allow some form of court-ordered treatment, typically in a hospital for people considered a danger to themselves or others. Connecticut is among a handful with no option for court-ordered treatment in a less restrictive community setting, said Kristina Ragosta, an attorney with the Treatment Advocacy Center, a national group that advocates better access to mental health treatment.

Lanza's medical records haven't been publicly disclosed and authorities haven't said if it is known what type of treatment his family may have sought for him. Lanza killed himself at the school.

Jennifer Hoff of Mission Viejo, Calif. has a 19-year-old bipolar son who has had hallucinations, delusions and violent behavior for years. When he was younger and threatened to harm himself, she'd call 911 and leave the door unlocked for paramedics, who'd take him to a hospital for inpatient mental care.

Now that he's an adult, she said he has refused medication, left home, and authorities have indicated he can't be forced into treatment unless he harms himself — or commits a violent crime and is imprisoned. Hoff thinks prison is where he's headed — he's in jail, charged in an unarmed bank robbery.

___

Online:

American Academy of Child & Adolescent Psychiatry: http://www.aacap.org

___

AP Medical Writer Lindsey Tanner can be reached at http://www.twitter.com/LindseyTanner

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Wall Street Week Ahead: A lump of coal for "Fiscal Cliff-mas"

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wall Street traders are going to have to pack their tablets and work computers in their holiday luggage after all.

A traditionally quiet week could become hellish for traders as politicians in Washington are likely to fall short of an agreement to deal with $600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts due to kick in early next year. Many economists forecast that this "fiscal cliff" will push the economy into recession.

Thursday's debacle in the U.S. House of Representatives, where Speaker John Boehner failed to secure passage of his own bill that was meant to pressure President Obama and Senate Democrats, only added to worry that the protracted budget talks will stretch into 2013.

Still, the market remains resilient. Friday's decline on Wall Street, triggered by Boehner's fiasco, was not enough to prevent the S&P 500 from posting its best week in four.

"The markets have been sort of taking this in stride," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago, which has about $38 billion in assets under management.

"The markets still basically believe that something will be done," he said.

If something happens next week, it will come in a short time frame. Markets will be open for a half-day on Christmas Eve, when Congress will not be in session, and will close on Tuesday for Christmas. Wall Street will resume regular stock trading on Wednesday, but volume is expected to be light throughout the rest of the week with scores of market participants away on a holiday break.

For the week, the three major U.S. stock indexes posted gains, with the Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> up 0.4 percent, the S&P 500 <.spx> up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> up 1.7 percent.

Stocks also have booked solid gains for the year so far, with just five trading sessions left in 2012: The Dow has advanced 8 percent, while the S&P 500 has climbed 13.7 percent and the Nasdaq has jumped 16 percent.

IT COULD GET A LITTLE CRAZY

Equity volumes are expected to fall sharply next week. Last year, daily volume on each of the last five trading days dropped on average by about 49 percent, compared with the rest of 2011 - to just over 4 billion shares a day exchanging hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT in the final five sessions of the year from a 2011 daily average of 7.9 billion.

If the trend repeats, low volumes could generate a spike in volatility as traders keep track of any advance in the cliff talks in Washington.

"I'm guessing it's going to be a low volume week. There's not a whole lot other than the fiscal cliff that is going to continue to take the headlines," said Joe Bell, senior equity analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research, in Cincinnati.

"A lot of people already have a foot out the door, and with the possibility of some market-moving news, you get the possibility of increased volatility."

Economic data would have to be way off the mark to move markets next week. But if the recent trend of better-than-expected economic data holds, stocks will have strong fundamental support that could prevent selling from getting overextended even as the fiscal cliff negotiations grind along.

Small and mid-cap stocks have outperformed their larger peers in the last couple of months, indicating a shift in investor sentiment toward the U.S. economy. The S&P MidCap 400 Index <.mid> overcame a technical level by confirming its close above 1,000 for a second week.

"We view the outperformance of the mid-caps and the break of that level as a strong sign for the overall market," Schaeffer's Bell said.

"Whenever you have flight to risk, it shows investors are beginning to have more of a risk appetite."

Evidence of that shift could be a spike in shares in the defense sector, expected to take a hit as defense spending is a key component of the budget talks.

The PHLX defense sector index <.dfx> hit a historic high on Thursday, and far outperformed the market on Friday with a dip of just 0.26 percent, while the three major U.S. stock indexes finished the day down about 1 percent.

Following a half-day on Wall Street on Monday ahead of the Christmas holiday, Wednesday will bring the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It is expected to show a ninth-straight month of gains.

U.S. jobless claims on Thursday are seen roughly in line with the previous week's level, with the forecast at 360,000 new filings for unemployment insurance, compared with the previous week's 361,000.

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: rodrigo.campos(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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